Project Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid's single-game fantasy scores based on target distribution, catch efficiency, and TE Premium scoring formats.
Career averages: 10.8 YPR, 64% Catch Rate (2023-2025)
Here's how the calculator projects a fantasy score for Dalton Kincaid using TE Premium scoring (1.5 PPR for TEs) with 8 targets and 5 receptions:
// STEP-BY-STEP CALCULATION:
• Receiving Yards: 5 receptions × 10.8 YPR = 54 yards
• Receiving Points: 54 × 0.1 = 5.4 pts
• PPR Bonus: 5 receptions × 1.0 = +5.0 pts
• TE Premium Bonus: 5 receptions × 0.5 = +2.5 pts
• TD Probability: (5 × 0.035) + (8 × 0.015) = 0.295 (29.5% chance of a TD)
• TD Points: 0.295 × 6 = 1.8 pts
• Total Fantasy Points: 5.4 + 5.0 + 2.5 + 1.8 = 14.7 TE Premium Points
Scoring Formula: (Rec Yards × 0.1) + (Receptions × PPR Value) + (Receptions × TE Premium Bonus) + (TD Probability × 6)
Note: TD Probability is calculated using Kincaid's career rates: 3.5% per reception and 1.5% per target.
📊 2025 Season Note: Kincaid played through a PCL tear in 2025, recording 39 receptions for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns in 12 games. His efficiency remained strong with a 10.8 YPR average.
| Season | Games | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yds | YPR | Rec TDs | Catch % | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | 91 | 52 | 570 | 11.0 | 3 | 57% | — |
| 2024 | 17 | 105 | 65 | 551 | 8.5 | 1 | 62% | — |
| 2025 | 12 | 62 | 39 | 571 | 14.6 | 5 | 63% | PCL Tear |
| Career | 45 | 258 | 156 | 1,692 | 10.8 | 9 | 60% | — |
* Data compiled from official NFL game logs. Updated through 2025 season. Kincaid missed 5 games in 2025 due to a PCL injury.
| Metric | Kincaid | NFL TE Avg | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Reception | 10.8 | 9.8 | +10.2% |
| Catch Rate | 60% | 60% | Equal |
| Targets Per Game | 5.7 | 4.8 | +18.8% |
| Yards Per Game | 37.6 | 35.1 | +7.1% |
* NFL TE averages based on 2024-2025 starting tight ends (min. 50 targets).
Dalton Kincaid has quickly established himself as one of the NFL's most promising young tight ends since being drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. With his exceptional route-running ability and sure hands, Kincaid has become a favorite target of quarterback Josh Allen in the Bills' high-powered offense.
Through three seasons, Kincaid has amassed 156 receptions for 1,692 yards and 9 touchdowns across 45 games. His career catch rate of 60% and 10.8 yards per reception rank among the most efficient tight ends in the league, making him a reliable fantasy asset in both PPR and TE Premium formats.
The 2025 season saw Kincaid battle through a PCL tear, limiting him to just 12 games. Despite the injury, he posted 39 receptions for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns, showcasing his elite efficiency with a 14.6 yards per reception average — a career-best mark that demonstrates his big-play ability even while playing hurt.
🏥 2025 Injury Context: Kincaid's PCL tear significantly impacted his availability and production. However, his efficiency numbers (14.6 YPR, 5 TDs in 12 games) suggest that when healthy, he's a top-5 fantasy tight end. Fantasy managers should monitor his recovery heading into the 2026 season.
In TE Premium leagues (1.5 PPR for tight ends), Kincaid's consistent target volume and high catch rate make him a weekly difference-maker. His chemistry with Josh Allen and the Bills' pass-heavy offense provide a stable fantasy floor with significant weekly upside.
TE Premium leagues award 1.5 points per reception to tight ends instead of the standard 1.0 PPR, boosting TE values significantly.
If healthy, yes. Despite the 2025 PCL injury, Kincaid's 14.6 YPR and 5 TDs in 12 games demonstrate elite efficiency. He's a consensus top-7 TE in both PPR and TE Premium formats.
Kincaid suffered a PCL (posterior cruciate ligament) tear that limited him to 12 games. He's expected to be fully recovered for the 2026 season.
Yes. This estimator is a 100% free client-side utility built for fantasy analysis. All calculations run instantly in your browser without requiring account creation.